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“An unlimited power to tax involves, necessarily, a power to destroy” – John Marshall

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

US equity futures are lower across the board as S&P 500 futures are down more than 0.5% while the Nasdaq faces even steeper losses with a decline of more than 11%. The culprit behind the weakness is rising oil prices and yields (what else is new). Gold prices are down about half a percent while Bitcoin is down double that.

Japanese stocks reopened for trading after a three-day holiday, and the Nikkei rallied 0.9%, but other indices in the region were mostly lower as the Shanghai Composite fell over 1% and Indian equities fell more than 1.5%. The Kospi was unchanged as South Korean stocks were closed for a holiday. While it didn’t have much of a market impact, Treasury Secretary Bessent made news last night when he said that him and his counterpart in China agreed to extend the Busan agreement for another two months in order to allow time for negotiators on both sides to try and hammer out a trade agreement.

European stocks are little changed on each side of the unchanged line this morning. The STOXX 600 is slightly lower, while the UK and Spain both trade fractionally higher. The Swiss National Bank left rates unchanged at 0.0%, as expected, while Consumer Confidence in France was better than expected, coming in unchanged from August.

On the economic calendar, jobless claims hit the tape at 8:30 and came in lower than expected on both an initial and continuing basis. Besides these two reports, New Home Sales will come out at 10 AM followed by the KC Fed Manufacturing Index at 11 AM.

The 10-year yield continues to move higher this morning. After yesterday’s surge to 5.1%, its chart is starting to give off serious memory-stock-in-the-spring vibes.

Over the last month alone, the 10-year yield has increased 50 bps in what has been the largest move in a 21-trading-day span since January 2025. As shown in the chart below, moves of this magnitude are at the high end of the historical range since 1990, but they aren’t extreme.

On a positive note, all the volatility in the Treasury market has remained siloed to this point. Yesterday, the CBOE volatility index (VIX) closed at 15.26, which is right near its lows for the year. Historically, following periods when the 10-year yield rose more than 40 bps in a month, the average reading on the VIX was over 22, or three points higher than the average VIX reading on all days since 1990.

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