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“I know it’s impossible. But I know I’ll do it!” – Philippe Petit

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US futures are looking to close out an already strong week on a positive note with Nasdaq futures up 0.5% while the S&P 500 looks at a more modest gain of about half that. The July employment report just hit the tape, and the results came in weaker than expected as headline non-farm payrolls fell 23K versus forecasts for an increase of about 80K. That news has pushed yields lower, with the 10-year falling 5 bps down to 4.62% while equity futures add to their gains. Crude oil is little changed, gold is up over 1.5%, while Bitcoin is up 1% and back above $65K.

Asian stocks finished the week with mixed performance, capping off what has been a week with varied returns. South Korean stocks finished the week down 5% while Japan and China both rose 2% or more. China reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus, and that news came less than 24 hours after President Trump implemented new 15% tariffs on polysilicon products coming from China.

The volatility in South Korea we saw this week comes as investors try to find an equilibrium with respect to where memory stocks both there and here at home should settle out. On the one hand, the unbelievable rallies in the first half can’t keep going forever. The seemingly ludicrous returns, however, weren’t entirely unjustified, as many of the top players in the space still trade at single-digit multiples even as earnings have exploded. Consider this: when SanDisk (SNDK) reported earnings earlier this week, FY 2026 EPS increased 2,270% relative to FY 2025. That earnings spike doesn’t appear to be a one-off either, as FY 2027 earnings are expected to roughly triple again to $211.37. If those earnings are achieved, the stock currently trades for less than six times earnings.

Now the trillion-dollar question is how sustainable this momentum is going forward? On SpaceX’s conference call earlier this week, Elon Musk noted that “the limiting factor currently is memory.” He went on to explain:

“The memory output is increasing by around 20% per year. Now, normally, that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large, mature industry, but ask yourself: Is the demand increasing by 20% a year? No, the demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher. So, if you’ve got demand increasing much faster than supply, then economics 101 would suggest that the price increases. It does not decrease.”

Musk has never been one to shy away from big promises, so comments like this aren’t unexpected, and if he were in the business of selling memory chips, they could be taken with a grain of salt. Last we looked, though, Musk and his various businesses are big consumers of memory rather than suppliers, so he has little incentive to talk up prices.

Moving on to Europe, equities are broadly higher, ending what has been an across-the-board rally for benchmark indices in the region. The STOXX 600 is up 0.7% in early trading, taking its weekly gain to 2.1%, while most individual country benchmarks in the region are up by similar amounts. Like China, Germany reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus while unemployment in France rose more than expected, hitting 8.3% versus an expected 8.2%.

TGIF, right?  Well, not this year. The chart below shows the S&P 500’s average daily change by day so far in 2026, and Friday has been the worst day of the week with an average decline of 7.6 bps. Thursdays have also been slightly negative with an average decline of 1.6%.  Almost all the action comes to kick off the week, though, as the S&P 500 has averaged a daily gain of nearly 33 bps.

For the entire bull market, Mondays have still been the best day of the week with an average gain of 19.4 bps, and Fridays have been the second best day with an average gain of just under 10 bps. The two best days of the week sandwich positive days for the rest of the week, but on a combined basis, the 14.4 bps gain for Tuesday through Thursday is still less than the average for Monday alone. Mondays, who knew?

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