See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“You can never cross the ocean unless you have the courage to lose sight of the shore.” – Christopher Columbus

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Futures are giving off mixed vibes this morning, as memory stocks drag down the Nasdaq and have less impact on the S&P 500 and virtually no impact on the Dow, as a result. Dow futures are up over 1%, the S&P 500 is looking at a 0.5% gain, while Nasdaq futures are fractionally lower. Treasury yields are sharply lower, with the 10-year yield down to 4.67%, and crude oil is plunging over 5% (more on that below) on renewed hopes of a deal between the US and Iran.

Outside South Korea, it was a relatively uneventful session overnight in Asia despite the US confirmation of intervention in the Japanese yen. The Nikkei fell 0.9%, Hong Kong was up 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6%. South Korean equities fell 5.1%, but nowadays, moves like that seem to be the norm rather than the exception. Manufacturing PMIs for the region generally showed acceleration in the region’s economies.

European equities are trading more one-directionally this morning with gains across the board. The STOXX is up 0.4%, led higher by a 1.5% gain in Germany and a 1.3% rally in France. UK stocks are lagging as the FTSE 100 is up just 0.2% as AstraZeneca weighs on performance following news of a potential acquisition of Bristol Myers (BMY). Unlike in Asia, though, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI showed some modest weakness, decelerating from 52.0 to 51.9. Besides that, Retail Sales in Germany fell more than expected (-1.1% versus -0.4% forecast).

In the US today, the ISM Manufacturing report will be the main report to watch, but after the close we’ll also get earnings reports from Palantir (PLTR), Whirlpool (WHR), and Diamondback Energy (FANG), among others.

Crude oil prices are trading sharply lower to start the week following news over the weekend that President Trump had called off strikes against Iran as the two sides get together to try and make a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If this all seems a bit Groundhog Day-ish to you, that’s because the same thing happened last Monday as crude oil prices also gapped down more than 5%.

A 5% decline is a big move, even for a volatile commodity like crude oil, but this is already the second time this year that crude oil has kicked off two trading weeks in a row with back-to-back 5%+ declines. The last streak was towards the end of March, earlier on in the war when markets were hoping for a ceasefire.

It hasn’t been common in the last 25+ years for crude oil to kick off consecutive weeks with a decline of at least 5%. This current streak is only the 7th since the start of 2000. Before the two this year, there were three in March and April 2000 during the Covid lockdowns, one in 2016, and then one other in October 2008.

The chart below shows when each prior streak occurred on a long-term chart of WTI. The 2016 and 2020 streaks were clearly followed by steady gains in crude, but the one before that in 2008 came right in the middle of the Financial Crisis as prices plunged from $145 down to $35.

With another new month upon us, in last weekend’s Bespoke Report, we discussed several seasonal market trends.  The chart below is one of those and shows the S&P 500’s average monthly performance over various time periods since 1928. Whether you look at all years since 1928, the last 50 years, or the last 25, August has been somewhat of a dud for bulls. The average monthly gain of 0.7% ranks as the sixth worst month of the year, while the 0.3% gain over the last fifty years ranks as the third worst. Over just the last 25 years, August ranks as one of just four months when the S&P 500 averages a decline (0.1%).  As if August wasn’t bad enough, it precedes September, which has easily been the worst month of the year across all three time periods.

Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.