See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium.  CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.

“Everything is hard before it is easy.” ― Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Three days ago, the market was in a holding pattern because “we had to get through Nvidia (NVDA) earnings”. Within hours of that report, the focus immediately shifted to Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s 10 AM speech. Once that speech is over, the focus will inevitably shift once again, as there’s always something for investors to worry about.

In last week’s Bespoke Report, we highlighted the historical performance of the S&P 500 and the 10-year yield in the week of and week after the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole retreat, and the results showed that despite all the hoopla surrounding the event and the Fed Chair’s speech, market performance was relatively subdued. While there have always been outliers, the smart bet has been not to expect much.

Ahead of today’s 10 AM speech, equity futures are modestly weaker. The S&P 500 is down 1 basis point, while the Nasdaq is down 0.22%. Treasury yields are slightly higher, with the 10-year yield moving up 2 basis points to 4.69%. Oil prices are slightly lower, with WTI trading just over $83 per barrel, while gold and Bitcoin are both fractionally lower.

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, finishing a mixed week. The Nikkei traded 0.4% higher to push its weekly gain up to 0.6%, while the Kospi fell 1.8% for both the day and the week. CPI in Japan slightly accelerated, rising from 1.8% in July to 1.9%.

European markets are also higher this morning, with the STOXX 600 up 0.4%, putting it fractionally into the green for the week, while France is up 1% and Italy rallies 0.8%. The rally in France comes despite Q2 GDP being revised down to 0.0% versus forecasts for growth of 0.2%. The French finance minister attributed the weakness to the summer heatwave and said he expects Q3 growth data to also be negatively impacted.

Summer’s almost over. Sorry to start your Friday with a bummer of a statement, but the unofficial summer season is starting to wind down, as there’s just a week left of trading before Labor Day. There’s been some frustration among investors that the market can’t seem to make any headway lately, but if we take a step back and look at the S&P 500’s performance since Memorial Day, it’s been a decent summer. The S&P 500 is up 3.45% since then, and while that’s on pace for the weakest summer since 2022, it’s still above the 50-year average gain of 2.6%. As shown in the chart below, summer has historically been a good time of year for the market, as the S&P 500 has posted gains 74% of the time.

The chart below shows the S&P 500’s average performance in the week before the holiday weekend. If you’re looking for excitement next week, don’t plan on finding it in the stock market. The S&P 500’s average performance during the week is a gain of 0.1%, with positive returns 64% of the time. In terms of volatility, the S&P 500 has had a weekly gain or loss of more than 1% just half of the time. If there is going to be a big move, though, it’s more likely to be to the downside. Of the 15 weekly moves of 2% or more over the last 50 years, downside moves outnumbered upside moves by a 2-1 margin.

Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to continue reading today’s full Morning Lineup.