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“Writing a description for this thing for general audiences is bloody hard. There’s nothing to relate it to.” – Satoshi Nakamoto

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

It’s been a somewhat lousy week for bulls, as the S&P 500 is down about 2% week to date and the Nasdaq is down 2.5%, but futures are putting a modest dent in those losses, with the S&P 500 trading about 0.5% higher while the Nasdaq gains 0.75%. There’s not much to point to driving the gains, but Treasury yields aren’t rising, and crude oil is fractionally lower but still on pace for a 6% gain this week. Gold prices are trading up nearly 2% while other precious metals gain even more, and Bitcoin is up over 5% to $77K (more on that below).

Asian stocks ended the week with mixed returns overnight. The Nikkei finished down 0.3% to end the week just under 4% lower, while Hong Kong rallied 1.2% to finish 3.6% higher for the week. In South Korea, the KOSPI rallied 0.9% but still finished the week down 0.9%. In Japan, CPI was generally in line with expectations while the Manufacturing PMI for August also matched expectations. In South Korea, exports for the first 20 days of the month surged 56% y/y.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 is trying to halt a seven-day losing streak as that index rallies a modest 0.1%. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for the region came in higher than expected.

This morning in the US, the only data on the calendar are flash Manufacturing and Services sector PMIs at 9:45. Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged from July at 53.9, while the Services sector is expected to decelerate to 54.0 from 54.6.

Earlier this week on CNBC, a guest who was bullish on Bitcoin was asked what the next catalyst for the cryptocurrency would be. He answered that he couldn’t see any imminent catalysts that would act as a spark to push prices higher. At the time, Bitcoin prices were in the low $60K range. This morning, Bitcoin prices are above $77K. The point here isn’t to criticize the guest. Instead, it serves as a reminder that it’s always the unknown catalysts that cause big moves in the price of an asset. If the catalyst was known, then it would already be reflected in price!

Bitcoin’s price has gone straight up over the last three days, but even with that gain, it has done little to dig itself out of the hole it dug over the last 12 months. A year ago, Bitcoin was over $120K per coin. At the end of the year, it was down to about $90K, and in May it was above $80K. At $77K this morning, Bitcoin is still lower than it was three months ago.

Bitcoin is down over the last three months, but its 23.6% rally over the last week is the strongest since November 2024, just after the election. From 2016 through the 2024 election, 20% weekly moves in Bitcoin were commonplace. Since then, though, volatility to both the upside and downside has dried up.

From an overbought/oversold perspective, Bitcoin’s move this week has been historic. With today’s move, Bitcoin is trading 5.2 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average, a level it has never traded at since at least 2016. In July 2020 and January 2023, it got close but never quite reached 5 standard deviations.

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