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“We have resolved to pave the way for a grand peace for all generations to come by enduring the unendurable and bearing the unbearable.” – Emperor Hirohito, 8/14/1945

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

We’re heading into the last trading day of the week with equity markets around the globe more overbought than any other asset class.  As shown in the snapshot below, the long bond ETF (TLT) is the only area that’s oversold, while oil (USO), Bitcoin (IBIT), and the dollar (UUP) are neutral.

The stock market has had about as good of a first half of August as you could ask for.  The final days of July saw the major indices below their 50-DMAs and teetering on full breakdowns.  A couple weeks later, small-caps (IWM), mid-caps (IJH), and large-caps (SPY) have all broken out to record highs, confirming the bull market that’s been in place since late 2022.

Of the major index ETFs across the market-cap spectrum, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is the only one that hasn’t broken out to new highs.

Even though QQQ (cap-weighted) still needs to gain a few percent to reach prior highs, the equal-weight version of the index (QQQE) just broke out to record highs yesterday.  While the mega-caps have kept QQQ at bay, the average stock in the index has done better.

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