Bespoke Morning Lineup

Highlights

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the top pre-market report on Wall Street.  We cover everything you need to know to get your trading day started, including international market moves and events, post-market and pre-market earnings news, upgrades and downgrades, dividends and splits, economic indicators and estimates, big stock movers, market internals and much more.  It’s all presented in the original and concise format that Bespoke is known for so you can digest lots of information quickly and efficiently.

See all of today’s Morning Lineup by starting a free trial to Bespoke’s paid research.  No credit card is required.

Bespokecast — Episode 3 — Katie Stockton

In our newest conversation on Bespokecast, we speak with BTIG’s Chief Technical Strategist Katie Stockton.  Katie is one of the top technicians around, and this is a wide-ranging discussion on technicals as an investment strategy that is both educational and instructive.  Katie has a long career in markets and has been immersed in the discipline of technical analysis right from the beginning.  In our hour-long conversation, we get her basic approach to technicals, background about the goals and toolkits that technicians use, and her current view of market technicals.  We also discuss non-market topics, including the work-life balance for finance professionals with families.  We had a fantastic time recording this conversation, and we hope you enjoy it!

To access this week’s podcast immediately, start a 14-day free trial to Bespoke’s research product.  If you’ve already used your Bespoke free trial, you can gain access by choosing a membership option at our products page.

The Closer 12/6/16 – So Close To A Petroleum Trade Surplus, And Yet So Far

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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we chart out the trade balance, update recent GDP tracking from the NY Fed and Atlanta Fed, and chart productivity figures updated for Q3 today by the BLS.

Sample

The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!

Dow 30 Trading Range Screen

Below is an updated look at our trading range screen for the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  This screen allows you to quickly see where a large number of stocks are currently trading within their normal ranges.  The dot represents where the stock is currently trading, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago.  The black vertical “N” line represents each stock’s 50-day moving average, and moves into the red or green zone are considered overbought or oversold.

At the moment, 14 of the 30 Dow stocks are in overbought territory, with stocks like Chevron (CVX), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JP Morgan (JPM) trading at the most overbought levels.  It should be noted, though, that no stocks are trading well into extreme overbought territory any longer, whereas a week or two ago, a boatload of names were at extremes.  Most stocks in the index have moved slightly lower within their ranges over the last week.  IBM, Merck (MRK), McDonald’s (MCD), and Microsoft (MSFT) are some of the names that have seen the biggest moves lower.

There are currently just six stocks in oversold territory — Cisco (CSCO), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca-Cola (KO), Merck (MRK), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Visa (V).  Of these names, Visa is the most oversold.

For each stock, we also include its current dividend yield and year-to-date percentage change.  This provides some additional context for the 30 index members.  As shown, Caterpillar (CAT) is currently up the most year-to-date with a gain of just under 40%.  UnitedHealth (UNH) ranks second at +34%, followed by Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM), and Chevron (CVX).  Only six stocks in the index are down year-to-date, and Nike (NKE) is down by far the most at -19%.  Coca-Cola (KO) is down the second most at -5.74%, while Disney (DIS) ranks third worst at -4.63%.

Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members see a number of our trading range screens on a regular basis.  Become a member today!

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ETF Trends: International – 12/6/16

Energy-related ETFs continue to surge, with Oil-services related ETFs up over 15%. Underperformance continues to pile up for bonds and bond proxies like Utilities. Gold, China, Biotech, and momentum stocks are the biggest losers over the past two weeks. Low vol, consumer staples, and semis have also underperformed enormously.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

Consumer Pulse: Perception of Personal Finances Ticks Down

Each month, Bespoke runs a survey of 1,500 US consumers balanced to census.  In the survey, we cover everything you can think of regarding the economy, personal finances, and consumer spending habits.  We’ve now been running the monthly survey for more than two years now, so we have historical trend data that is extremely valuable, and it only gets more valuable as time passes.  All of this data gets packaged into our monthly Bespoke Consumer Pulse Report, which is included as part of our Pulse subscription package that is available for either $39/month or $365/year.  We highly recommend trying out the service, as it includes access to model portfolios and additional consumer reports as well.  If you’re not yet a Pulse member, click here to start a 30-day free trial now!  Below we highlight the results of a question we ask regarding feelings towards personal finances compared to a year ago.  This is one of literally hundreds of data points included in each monthly report.

Each month we ask our survey participants to rate their feelings towards their personal finances versus one year ago.  As shown, after hitting a two-year high earlier this year, this reading has actually been trending lower.  There was definitely a lot of uncertainty for consumers heading into the election, but our November survey ran right after the election, and it still ticked lower.  So while a lot of economic data points that have come out over the last few weeks have shown a big boost in consumer and investor sentiment, this specific reading on personal finances is a bit of an outlier.  We’ll certainly be interested to see how this reading looks in our December survey due out in a couple of weeks.

Bespoke Recent Media Appearances

Bespoke Co-Founder Paul Hickey appeared on CNN’s Outfront with Erin Burnett last Friday (12/2) to discuss the market rally in the post-election period.  To view that segment, please click on the image below.

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Paul Hickey was also on CNBC’s Closing Bell on Monday (12/5) to discuss a number of market topics.  Links to a few of those segments are below.

Buyback Boom on the Way?
Finally Seeing Rally in New Sectors
Amazon Exploring Several Grocery Store Concepts

The Closer 12/5/16 – The Rally Continues, US Equities And JPY

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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we discuss some of the important dynamics in recent equity price action. We also take a look at how JPY has been trading recently.

Sample

The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else Bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research!

The Most and Least Loved Stocks in the S&P 500

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Below is an updated look at the most loved stocks in the S&P 500 by analysts.  As shown, two stocks in the index have 100% “Buy” ratings — Harris Corp (HRS) and Leucadia (LUK).  Analysts can’t get more bullish than that!  Both stocks are up nicely since the election as well.  The next three most loved stocks, however, are down 6%+ since the election.  These three names are Newell Brands (NWL), Broadcom (AVGO), and salesforce.com (CRM), and they all have more than 93% “Buy” ratings.  With these names trending lower since the election, are they ripe for downgrades?

Other notable names on the “most loved” list include Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), Priceline (PCLN), Visa (V), and Celgene (CELG).

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Looking to the least loved stocks, below is a list of the S&P 500 names with the lowest percentage of analyst “Buy” ratings.  As shown, five stocks in the index have zero “Buys” right now — PBCT, TMK, GRMN, LLTC, and VRSN.  Four of these five stocks are up nicely since the election.  Are these candidates for future upgrades?

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ISM Services Tops Expectations

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Chalk up another one for the pile of better than expected economic data recently.  Today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing report for the month of November came in at a level of 57.2 compared to expectations for 55.5 and represents the highest level since October 2015.  On a combined basis and accounting for both the weight of the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing sectors’ weights in the economy, the ISM for November hit a level of 56.7, which is also the highest level seen since October 2015.

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The table below breaks out this month’s ISM report by each of the index’s sub-categories.  Overall, breadth was split right down the middle relative to October and one year ago as five categories showed improvement and five weakened.  Relative to October, the biggest winners this month were Employment and Business Activity.  On the downside, Inventory Sentiment and Backlog Orders saw the largest declines.   While every sector remains in growth territory (above 50), no category is at or near a cycle high.  The closest is Employment, which is just one point off its high of 59.2 back in July 2015.

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