The BESPOKE REPORT – 7/1/16

Below is a recap of financial market performance using our ETF Matrix which measures performance (in terms of price) of various ETFs.  The version below contains performance figures for various ETFs (USD Price Changes) in the month of June, during the second quarter, and YTD.  Focusing on Q2 (middle column), it was a modestly positive quarter for US equities as the only major index that was down during the quarter was the Nasdaq (-1.52%).  All of the other indices featured were up anywhere from just over 1% (Dow Jones–DIA) to nearly 4% (Russell 2000-IWM).  On a sector basis, Energy (XLE) contributed the most to the gains with a gain of 10.26%.  Other sectors that were up more than 5% include Health Care (XLV), Telecom (IYZ), and Utilities (XLU).

In international markets, Brazil (EWZ) outdid every other country with its 14.7% gain.  The only other country up over 5% was Russia (RSX), which was up 6.48%.  On the downside, nearly all of the weakness was focused in Europe where Italy (EWI) dropped 11.1%, Spain (EWP) fell 8.1%, Germany (EWG) fell 6.53%, and France (EWQ) lost 5.42%. Closer to home, Mexico (EWW) was also weak with its decline of 6.2%.

In currencies, our ETFs were all over the place.  The British Pound (FXB) fell 7.41%; it was actually up on the quarter heading into the Brexit vote.  In the flight to safety trade that followed last week’s vote, investors also flocked to the Yen (FXY) as the ETF that tracks Japan’s currency was up 8.8%.

Finally, in commodities, all the ETFs shown were up sharply with DBC, USO (Oil), Nat Gas (UNG), and Silver (XLV) all up over 15%.  Long term treasuries (TLT) also had a strong showing rallying 6.35%.

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Have a great weekend and Happy 4th!

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ETF Trends: US Indices & Styles – 7/1/16

Below is our daily list of the twenty best and twenty worst performing ETFs over the last five trading days. Volatility surrounding Brexit has subsided to a certain degree. Although the British pound is still the worst performer over the last five days, it’s actually up from yesterday. In the days since Brexit, only 7 of the 259 ETFs we look at have fallen to lower levels than they were at the day after Brexit.  Natural resources had the best week, with Natural Gas coming in as the top performer and an array of precious metal related exposures, particularly gold, also coming in strong. Treasuries and bonds were among the worst performers, but for the most part, they were neutral or weakly positive.

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Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

Bespoke Morning Lineup

Highlights

  • S&P 500 futures +5 bps vs Fair Value
  • US Treasuries Yields at New Lows (Snapshot)
  • Puerto Rico Default (Snapshot)
  • Gove Says No Article 50 in 2016 (Brexit)
  • Pound Remains Heavy (Europe)
  • S&P 500 Three-Peat (US)

Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the top pre-market report on Wall Street.  We cover everything you need to know to get your trading day started, including international market moves and events, post-market and pre-market earnings news, upgrades and downgrades, dividends and splits, economic indicators and estimates, big stock movers, market internals and much more.  It’s all presented in the original and concise format that Bespoke is known for so you can digest lots of information quickly and efficiently.

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Weekly Sector Snapshots: 6/30/16

We’ve just released our weekly Sector Snapshot report (see a sample here) for Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members.  Please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member.  If you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to Bespoke Premium now.

Below is our trading range screen of the S&P 500 and its ten sectors.  For each sector, the dot represents where it’s currently trading within its range, while the tail end represents where it was trading one week ago.  Moves into the red zone are considered “overbought,” while moves into the green zone are considered “oversold.”

The black vertical “N” line in the screen represents each sector’s 50-day moving average.  After the declines Friday and Tuesday, it’s hard to believe that the S&P 500 is trading just shy over overbought levels, and that Consumer Staples, Telecom Services, and Utilities are all extremely overbought.

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The Closer 6/30/16 – “Railroads: Prices Matter”

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we highlight the slow growth of railroad shipping relative to truck traffic, as well as assessing the driver of the divergence between the two. We also preview a significant wave of overnight data to close the week.

Sample

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ETF Trends: Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities – 6/30/16

Below is our daily list of the twenty best and twenty worst performing ETFs over the last five trading days:

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

#BrexWhat

For several months now, we have been highlighting the fragile state of sentiment on the part of individual investors.  Therefore, given the huge negative reversals in the market last Friday and Monday in the wake of the Brexit referendum, one would have thought that sentiment would take a hit.  Not so.  In the latest sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment actually increased from 21.97% up to 28.91%.  While that is the biggest weekly increase in a month, it is also the 35th straight week that bullish sentiment was below 40%.

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While bullish sentiment saw a seven percentage point increase, bearish sentiment didn’t decline by nearly the same magnitude, falling from 35.23% down to 33.42%.  In spite of the decline, bears still outnumber bulls as they have done on a pretty consistent basis for the last ten weeks.

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Jobless Claims Slightly Higher; 69 Weeks Below 300K

This week’s jobless claims report was pretty uneventful, with the reported number coming in at 268K (1K above consensus estimates), representing an increase of 10K from last week.  While the actual move in claims was minimal, it did represent the 69th straight week that claims were below 300K.  That’s the longest streak since 1973, and if we go another five weeks below 300K it will be the longest streak since 1970.

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Due to the fact that this week’s reading was the same as the level we dropped from five weeks ago, the four-week moving average remained unchanged at 266.75K.  This is just over 10K above the cycle low of 256K from ten weeks ago.

063016 Initial Claims SA 4 WK

On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, claims increased by 13K up to 261.6K.  For the current week of the year, this is the lowest reading in NSA claims since 1973 and 90K below the average for the current week of the year dating back to 2000.

063016 Initial Claims NSA

 

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The Closer 6/29/16 – “UK Stocks Optimistic? Not So Much.”

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we evaluate the economic signals being sent by UK stocks. We also take a look at US economic data, including a very strong ATA Truck tonnage reading released earlier this week (chart below), DoE/EIA petroleum data, and the Personal Income and Spending Report today. We finish up with a summary of the busy slate for overnight economic data and events.

Sample

The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

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ETF Trends: International – 6/29/16

Gold and Treasuries continue to outperform on a five day basis despite a painful selloff into the close of US equity markets for bonds today. We’ve seen large bounces in European equity markets over the last couple of days, but that hasn’t helped recoup most of the grim losses following the UK’s referendum vote last week.  A sneaky strong performer has been natural gas with silver, TIPS, and other inflation proxies also doing quite well.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

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